2026 COLA Update – Projected Social Security Benefit Increases for Ages 62 to 80

Circle November 15, 2025, on your calendar — it’s the date millions of retirees have their eyes glued to. That’s when, assuming the federal government shutdown ends in time, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) — a small but crucial decision that determines how much bigger (or not) monthly Social Security checks will be next year.

For seniors who already feel the squeeze at grocery stores or juggle rising utility bills, even a few extra dollars each month can mean the difference between stretching every penny and catching a breather.

What to Expect from the 2026 COLA

Economists aren’t predicting fireworks this year — but they do expect a modest raise. Based on inflation readings from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through August 2025, most forecasts place the upcoming COLA at around 2.7%, slightly above 2025’s 2.5% increase.

That number isn’t random — it’s based on data tracked by the Social Security Board of Trustees and advocacy groups like The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), which monitor inflation trends closely.

A 2.7% COLA would bump the average monthly Social Security benefit from $2,005 to roughly $2,059, an annual gain of about $648. It’s not life-changing, but it’s meaningful for retirees trying to stay even with rising prices on essentials like food, rent, and healthcare.

“COLA isn’t about making people rich,” says Mary Johnson, a policy analyst at TSCL. “It’s about keeping people from falling behind — and right now, every little bit helps.”

How COLA Is Calculated

The Cost-of-Living Adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), a government inflation gauge that tracks price changes for more than 200 goods and services — from eggs to electricity bills.

Here’s the math in plain English:

Step	Process
1	SSA measures the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year.
2	They compare it with the same period from the previous year.
3	The percentage increase (if any) becomes the COLA rate for the following year.

If prices rise, benefits go up. If prices stay flat or fall, benefits remain unchanged.

This year’s final inflation reading (from September) will lock in the formula, and the official COLA announcement typically follows one to two weeks later — tentatively November 15, unless the ongoing budget impasse delays federal reporting.

The Medicare Twist

There’s one wrinkle retirees know too well: when Social Security payments rise, Medicare Part B premiums often do, too. Since those premiums are automatically deducted from most Social Security checks, a bigger COLA doesn’t always translate to more money in hand.

Analysts at the Kaiser Family Foundation and Medicare.gov project a “modest” increase in Part B premiums for 2026 — likely just a few dollars monthly. It’s not enough to cancel out the entire COLA, but it will trim some of the gains.

In real terms, experts expect retirees to net around $40–$45 more per month, depending on their Medicare deductions.

“Still, that’s real money,” says Teresa Ghilarducci of The New School’s Retirement Equity Lab. “It can cover a week of groceries or a tank of gas — and that’s meaningful.”

The Shrinking Power of the Dollar

Even with annual adjustments, retirees’ purchasing power has eroded by about 40% since 2000, according to TSCL’s Loss of Buying Power Report.

Why? Because the CPI-W reflects spending habits of working-age Americans — not retirees. Seniors spend far more on healthcare, housing, and utilities, categories that tend to rise faster than the general inflation rate.

So, while COLA helps offset inflation, it doesn’t fully match the real-world cost increases seniors face.

Still, without it, millions of older Americans would have lost ground much faster. The hefty COLAs during the inflation spike of 2022–2023 — 5.9% and 8.7% respectively — were lifelines that helped many stay afloat when prices for gas and groceries surged.

What Happens if the Government Shutdown Continues?

Here’s where things get uncertain. If the federal government shutdown stretches past mid-November, the SSA might have to delay the official COLA announcement.

However, benefit payments themselves will continue. Social Security is categorized as an essential service, meaning checks still go out even if other federal operations pause.

Once the shutdown ends, SSA will release the finalized COLA figure immediately. The new payment rates will still begin January 2026, regardless of any delay in the announcement.

“We have contingency plans for continuity of payments,” an SSA spokesperson confirmed to reporters. “Beneficiaries will not miss their checks, regardless of the budget situation.”

The Real Impact on Retirees

For most seniors, this annual adjustment is more than a bureaucratic update — it’s a gauge of financial breathing room. A 2.7% increase might not spark celebration, but it helps stabilize budgets already strained by inflation.

Financial planners urge clients to treat COLA not as extra income, but as a cost-offset — a buffer against the higher prices that keep creeping in.

“Retirees shouldn’t expect to feel richer,” says Anthony Rivera, a financial advisor based in Tampa. “It’s more like treading water — the current’s strong, and COLA just helps you stay afloat.”

Still, there’s room for cautious optimism: inflation has cooled, interest rates could ease in 2026, and energy costs — one of the biggest pain points of 2023 — have finally stabilized.

If nothing else, a predictable COLA is a welcome sign that the economy is slowly returning to normal.

Quick Facts: 2026 COLA Outlook

Question	Answer
When will SSA announce the 2026 COLA?	Expected November 15, 2025 (subject to change if shutdown continues).
What’s the expected increase?	Around 2.7%, based on inflation data through August 2025.
How much will benefits rise?	About $54 per month for the average recipient.
When will the new rates start?	January 2026 payments.
Will Medicare premiums offset gains?	Slightly — expect a net increase of about $40–$45 monthly.

FAQs